Natural Disasters Afghanistan

Natural Disasters Afghanistan

Flood risk

Roadmap for early warning and disaster risk management in Afghanistan

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. Currently, the government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions.

The World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies. The main objectives of the project are:

  1. To develop new information on current and future risks fluvial floods, flash floods, droughts, landslides, snow avalanches and seismic hazards in the country of Afghanistan.
  2. To propose resilient reconstruction and risk reduction options based and to estimate associated costs and benefits
Natural Disasters Afghanistan

What have we done and what are the results?

The project was carried out by a consortium of five institutes. Deltares was responsible for the overall project lead and risk assessments for fluvial floods, flash flood and droughts.

Risk is computed as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The main project output consists of tables and (GIS-) maps of hazard, exposure and risk. Tables present results at the nation-wide level, province level and district level. The figure below shows an example of a flood hazard map for the 100 return period. We also developed a risk map (based on all return periods) for a selected area (Nangarhar province; Kabul River). The maps show clear similarities between the hazard and risk contours. Areas of high risk (>500/y/ha) are found in municipality districts that are located in the floodplain as these are the areas where both hazard and exposure are significant.

Natural Disasters Afghanistan

All maps are stored in a web-based GIS-platform. This platform contains four separate directories with: generic data (catchment boundaries), hazard maps, exposure maps and risk maps for each of the considered perils.

Being able to provide nation-wide risk maps for various hazards in such a complex region is a demonstration of our expert knowledge and innovative tools, as well as our ability to be pragmatic.
Ferdinand Diermanse
Deltares expert water risk analysis
Deltares did a tremendous job at leading the consortium that developed the risk assessment, juggled the existing data and added all possible available information from modeling and other reliable sources to map all hazards, show exposure and highlight possible mitigation measures to reduce risks.
Federica Ranghieri
The World Bank

For this project Deltares has collaborated with the following partners:

  • The World Bank
  • Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

Want to know more about this project?

Ferdinand Diermanse
Expert water risk analysis